As we reach one hundred days into the ongoing US-Israel conflict involving Iran, it is pertinent to examine the history of diplomatic engagements between the United States and Iran, focusing on how many times these two nations have come close to sealing a deal. The relationship between the US and Iran has been long and complex, marked by periods of intense hostility and fleeting moments where diplomacy nearly bridged the divide.
The pursuit of a deal primarily revolves around nuclear negotiations, regional security matters, and economic sanctions. Over the past few decades, there have been multiple notable instances where agreements were within reach.
One of the earliest close calls was during the negotiations leading up to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. This landmark agreement, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal faced numerous hurdles but finally came to fruition after intense diplomatic efforts.
However, the deal’s unraveling began in 2018 when the US unilaterally withdrew under the Trump administration, escalating tensions and nullifying months of progress.
Since then, several attempts have been made to revive or replace the deal, including indirect talks facilitated by European powers and occasional direct contacts. Reports suggest that at least three major rounds of negotiations have brought the parties close to agreement. These rounds featured discussions on lifting sanctions, curbing Iran’s nuclear program, and ensuring verified compliance.
Yet, each time, disagreements over verification mechanisms, economic relief scope, and regional security concerns have prevented finalization. Notably, during the Biden administration, efforts to restore the JCPOA framework have been earnest but fraught with challenges, including differing political pressures and Iran’s changing internal dynamics.
Apart from the JCPOA-related talks, other diplomatic engagements aiming at de-escalation and prisoner exchanges have occasionally hinted at breakthroughs but stopped short of comprehensive deals.
In total, analysts recognize around five to seven significant occasions over the last twenty years where a deal was genuinely imminent but ultimately stalled. These near-deals reflect a pattern of potential compromise consistently undermined by politics, mistrust, and competing strategic interests.
The current conflict, marking one hundred days of heightened hostility, further complicates the prospect of diplomacy. Nonetheless, the history of near agreements suggests that despite profound differences, pathways to negotiation remain viable if political will aligns.
Understanding these precedents provides context for assessing future US-Iran interactions and the possibilities for achieving sustainable peace and stability in the region. The number of times the US and Iran have been on the verge of a deal underscores both the fragility and potential resilience of diplomatic efforts amidst ongoing conflict.
