Prime Minister Signals Shift on EU Ties, Igniting Speculation Over Future Brexit Stance

Prime Minister Starmer has recently emphasized the need for a closer trading relationship with the European Union, prompting widespread discussion about the future direction of the nation’s post-Brexit policy. This marks a notable shift from his previous stance, where he firmly committed to maintaining the existing framework.

During his 2018 Labour conference appearance, then-Shadow Brexit Secretary Starmer garnered significant attention by advocating for a second EU referendum, including the option to remain in the bloc. While the Labour Party eventually supported a second referendum, the 2019 general election saw the Conservatives achieve a decisive victory, and Britain subsequently left the EU. Starmer, upon becoming Labour leader weeks later, largely ceased public discourse on Brexit.

At the previous year’s general election, the Prime Minister articulated a clear position: a desire to “reset” the tone of Britain’s relationship with the EU and improve upon certain aspects of the Conservative-negotiated Brexit deal. However, he maintained that the fundamental principles of the post-Brexit settlement—remaining outside the single market and the customs union—would not be altered. This approach has guided the current government, culminating in a new EU-UK agreement in May.

However, a striking change in rhetoric emerged this past Monday, when Prime Minister Starmer, on three separate occasions, expressed a desire to pursue even closer ties with the EU. In an opinion piece, he asserted, “We must confront the reality that the botched Brexit deal significantly hurt our economy. One element of our economic renewal will be continuing to move towards a closer trading relationship with the EU.” He reiterated this sentiment in a morning speech, stating, “We have to keep moving towards a closer relationship with the EU.” Later that evening, at the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet, he further elaborated, saying, “The Brexit vote was a fair, democratic expression, and I will always respect that. But how it was sold and delivered was wrong. Wild promises were made to the British people and not fulfilled. We are still dealing with the consequences today in our economy.”

Despite this consistent messaging, the immediate implications may be less significant than they appear. During Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Starmer reaffirmed his commitment to the core tenets of the Brexit deal, reiterating that remaining outside the single market and the customs union remain “clear red lines.”

Sources close to the government suggest that the Prime Minister’s recent statements are intended to lay the groundwork for more minor and specific areas of collaboration between the UK and EU in the coming months. Millenium TV understands that May’s agreement was not considered a definitive conclusion, with many details regarding closer ties still subject to negotiation. For instance, discussions on food checks and carbon tariffs have recently commenced.

Further talks are also underway concerning a potential youth mobility scheme and the possibility of British universities rejoining the EU’s Erasmus student exchange program. These initiatives, according to government insiders, are part of the ongoing effort to define and advance the rationale for closer UK-EU relations.

The announcement that Nick Thomas-Symonds, the government minister previously overseeing UK-Brussels negotiations, would be joining the cabinet also fueled speculation among those advocating for a more significant shift on Brexit. However, government sources indicate this move has been over-interpreted, citing Thomas-Symonds’ expanded responsibilities within the Cabinet Office, including civil service reform, and the Prime Minister’s desire to bolster his cabinet with close allies amid concerns about dissent.

Nonetheless, some within the government and the broader Labour Party remain hopeful that the Prime Minister will eventually be persuaded to go further on Brexit, particularly regarding the customs union. A weekend report, referenced by a prominent opposition leader, indicated that Baroness Shafik, a key economic adviser to Starmer, is among those advocating for the UK to rejoin the customs union. Other private admissions within government suggest rejoining the customs union is seen as the most straightforward path to stimulate economic growth, as it would eliminate tariffs on trade within the union while applying common external tariffs.

However, one government source involved in the issue cautioned that rejoining the customs union would present challenges, citing potential demanding conditions from the EU and the UK’s need to relinquish its independent trade policy, which has yielded deals with nations like India and the United States.

Despite these complexities, surprisingly, some Labour figures believe rejoining the customs union is politically feasible. While the party was keen to reassure Brexit supporters in the last general election that it would not revisit the European question, securing many previously lost seats, sentiment appears to be shifting. One Member of Parliament representing a pro-Brexit constituency noted that the issue is “much less visceral than it was” and that there is “space to go quite far I think. The single market is a non-starter because you reopen the immigration issue.” But there’s space to rejoin the customs union. It’s about trade. No-one is going to object to better trade.” A cabinet minister agreed: “Voters just don’t really care about Brexit any more.”

Millenium TV has learned that some in Labour believe a significantly closer relationship with the EU could also help secure progressive voters who might otherwise lean towards other parties, and establish a clear political contrast with other political factions. Opinion polls consistently indicate that a majority of the public now believes the UK’s departure from the EU was a mistake, a sentiment echoed by a cabinet minister who compared Brexit to the Iraq War, noting that while many once supported it, few now admit to it.