This combo image shows Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears, left, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger, right. (AP Photo)
PETERSBURG, Va. — Rae Pickett stepped onto Richell Hines’ front stoop wearing a pink T-shirt that foretold the case she hoped to make to Virginia voters as she knocked on doors on a sunny Saturday in early October.
“Abortion is on the ballot,” it read.
Hines answered Pickett’s knock on her Petersburg, Virginia, door with a disarming smile and a T-shirt of her own: “She who kneels before God can stand before anyone.”
The polite exchange that followed between Pickett and Hines revealed the complexity of one of the most vivid policy differences between the two women vying to be the first female governor of Virginia — Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. The winner will likely influence abortion law in the only Southern state that’s maintained broad access to abortion since the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 eliminated a national right to the procedure.
Both candidates have cast the other as an outlier on abortion. But they’re also focusing on other matters, from Spanberger’s emphasis on the economy to Earle-Sears’ opposition to transgender people’s rights.
Pickett, who works for Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia, specifically went to homes of Democratic voters. She quickly encouraged those who answered to vote. If those folks backed Democrats in the competitive House of Delegates district — regardless of their reasoning — she knew they were effectively voting for abortion rights, too.
“I do understand in some circumstances it’s needed and others it’s preventable,” Hines said when asked her views on abortion.
She added, sighing: “That’s a hard one.”
Clear choices facing Virginians
Nationally, advocates across the abortion rights spectrum are watching Virginia for clues about how the issue might resonate in 2026 midterm campaigns, with control of Congress and dozens of statehouses at stake.
“We know that the elections here signal what the tone and temperature could be in other elections going forward,” said Olivia Turner, president of the Virginia Society for Human Life, which opposes abortion rights.
About 6 in 10 Virginia voters in the 2024 presidential election said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of interviews with registered voters. More than half of Virginia voters said they’d oppose banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy nationwide. Slightly fewer than half, 45%, said they’d favor such a restriction.
Polling also indicates most people believe abortion should be allowed in some circumstances but not others, roughly in line with national numbers: 62% of U.S. voters last November said abortion should be legal in at least “most” cases.
In their recent debate, both candidates touched on the nuanced opinions of voters like Hines.
Earle-Sears sidestepped a question about abortion, which she once called “wicked” in a clip Spanberger has featured in an ad.
“It’s not my view. It’s going to be what the majority of Virginians want,” Earle-Sears said. “There’s a constitutional amendment, and the voters will make that decision.”
Earle-Sears insisted Spanberger backs unfettered abortion access.
Spanberger remained silent for several seconds after Earle-Sears suggested she supported letting fully birthed infants die.
“Abigail?” Earle-Sears said as the Democrat ignored the attack.
Spanberger countered by noting women who suffered life-threatening and, in some cases, fatal infections from pregnancy complications but could not receive medically necessary abortions in states that adopted restrictions after the 2022 Supreme Court decision.
“Women have died,” Spanberger said. “If my opponent were to become governor, that is what she would inflict upon Virginia.”
Earle-Sears shot back: “Don’t lie like that.”
Spanberger, when asked about restrictions, opted first for a legalistic explanation of “the Roe standard” that Supreme Court justices overturned. She affirmed her support for the constitutional amendment that she argues would protect that standard. Pressed by moderators, she endorsed existing Virginia law that includes parental consent for minors seeking abortions and certain controls on third-trimester procedures.
Constitutional amendment hangs on legislators
Virginia Republicans assert the amendment threatens current limitations, especially the parental consent law.
“The language is so vague,” said Turner, arguing women, including minors, could challenge any statutory limitation as violating a state constitutional right.
The proposed amendment requires one more approval from lawmakers before it can go to voters. Abortion rights supporters hold a one-vote edge in the House of Delegates.
Republicans have drawn attention to claims a Fairfax County school social worker helped students access abortion care in 2021, which officials described as untrue in their interim findings. Those claims are being investigated by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s administration and Fairfax County Public Schools, under the direction of the U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. Senate’s health committee.
“I think everybody in the Commonwealth can agree that parents should know what their daughters are doing,” Del. Phillip Scott said at a Moms for Liberty town hall recently in Fairfax.
For now, Virginia Republicans have little hope of imposing tighter abortion restrictions because the state Senate’s Democratic majority is not on the ballot this year. But in a state that elected Youngkin four years ago, voters could eventually pair a governor like Earle-Sears with a GOP-majority legislature, making way for tighter restrictions.
Tethering abortion to parents’ rights, an issue that led to Youngkin’s victory, resonated with some conservative parents.
Stephanie Lundquist-Arora, who spoke at the town hall, likened an abortion-related women’s history display at a county high school to the “leftist rendition of the alphabet.”
“Starting with ‘A is for abortion,’ with an image of a coat hanger,” Lundquist-Arora said. The room gasped.
Virginia has become a ‘destination state’
Abortion demand in Virginia has risen as other Southern states imposed new restrictions or effective bans.
“We are a destination state,” Turner lamented.
Autumn Celeste, a spokesperson for the Charlottesville-based Blue Ridge Abortion Fund, said that during their fiscal year between 2021 and 2022, the organization helped 1,600 callers access abortion care and gave $578,000 to abortion clinics. Between 2024 and 2025, the clinic has supported 2,400 callers, Celeste said, an uptick straining the system.
More than 17% of the more recent patrons were from Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.
Despite potential consequences in Virginia and beyond, abortion is one of many issues voters are weighing.
About three-quarters of Virginia voters in the 2024 presidential election said abortion policy had an impact on which candidates they supported in that election, and about 7 in 10 said abortion policy was an important factor in their vote. Yet 4 in 10 Virginia voters said “the economy and jobs” was the most important issue facing the country at that time, and about 2 in 10 said it was immigration. About 1 in 10 Virginia voters said abortion was the nation’s top issue, and a similar share named health care.
Back in Petersburg, Hines said the cost of living worried her. She said she’d vote for Spanberger despite disagreeing with Democrats on some social issues.
