ISTANBUL— An Israeli strike on a meeting of Hamas officials in Qatar has cast a cloud of growing concern across Turkey that it could be the next target.
Turkish Defense Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel would “further expand its reckless attacks, as it did in Qatar, and drag the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.”
Israel and Turkey were once strong regional partners, but ties between the countries ran into difficulties from the late 2000s and have reached an all-time low over the war in Gaza sparked by the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack in southern Israel. Tensions also have risen as the two countries have competed for influence in neighboring Syria since the fall of Bashar Assad’s government last year.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian cause and of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The Turkish president has criticized Israel, and particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with strident rhetoric since the start of the Gaza war, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.
Hamas officials regularly visit Turkey and some have taken up residence there. Israel previously accused Turkey of allowing Hamas to plan attacks from its territory, as well as carrying out recruitment and fundraising.
Erdogan is close to Qatar’s leaders and Turkey maintains strong military and commercial ties to the emirate. He is due to travel to Qatar this weekend for an Arab and Muslim leaders’ summit.
After Israel’s attacks on the territory of Iran, Syria, Yemen and now Qatar, Ankara is bound to be concerned by Israel’s ability to freely use the airspace of neighboring states.
“Israel’s ability to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing regional air defenses and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” said Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of Trends Research and Advisory’s Turkey program.
Turkey sees these attacks as a “broader Israeli strategy to establish a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states around it,” he added.
Turkey has superior military might
In crossing a previously unthinkable line by attacking Qatar, a close American ally that has been serving as a mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel also has raised the question of how far it will go in pursuing Hamas targets.
Through its NATO membership, Turkey would seem to have a greater degree of protection against Israeli attack than that afforded to Qatar by its close ties to the United States.
Turkey also boasts significantly greater military might than the Gulf state, with its armed forces second in size only to the U.S. among NATO countries and an advanced defense industry.
As tensions rise, Turkey has boosted its defenses. During Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, Erdogan announced an increase in missile production. Last month he formally inaugurated Turkey’s “Steel Dome” integrated air defense system, while projects such as the KAAN fifth-generation fighter have been fast-tracked.
