DOHA, Qatar — Just a few months ago, the rulers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump to their palaces with camel parades and pomp. Now, those same leaders are united in anger after Israel’s strike targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar’s capital, Doha.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called for “an Arab, Islamic and international response to confront the aggression” and deter Israel’s “criminal practices.”
The UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan flew to Qatar and embraced its ruling emir, a scene that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago, when the UAE and Saudi Arabia led a boycott of the country after accusing it of supporting terrorist groups, something strongly denied by Doha.
Israel’s attack in Qatar violated “all international laws and norms,” Sheikh Mohammed said. The strike has triggered the worst fears of leaders in the oil-rich Gulf: that the U.S. might abandon its decades-old commitment to protect them from regional aggressors in the mold of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein or – it now seems – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Those fears could undermine Trump’s priorities in the region, from ending the war in Gaza and expanding his signature Abraham Accords — which forged ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco — to countering Chinese and Russian influence. Netanyahu’s dream of new normalization deals across the Gulf seems further than ever.
Ironclad US support as Israel flouts norms
Trump seems to have registered the anger of Gulf leaders. He has distanced himself from the strike, saying it “does not advance Israel or America’s goals” and promising Qatar that it would not be repeated.
But his ironclad support for an Israeli government that has increasingly flouted international norms in the wars unleashed by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack is a source of concern in the Gulf.
Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, called the strike an act of “state terror” and singled out Netanyahu by name, accusing him of “barbarism.”
He also questioned the future of Qatar’s mediation efforts, saying there was nothing “valid” about the current talks after the strike. Israel targeted Hamas leaders as they were weighing a U.S. ceasefire proposal, killing at least five lower-ranking members and a member of Qatar’s security forces.
Netanyahu has meanwhile threatened to strike again if Qatar keeps hosting Hamas in its role as a regional mediator – which it has done for years with the full knowledge and support of the U.S.
“I say to Qatar and all nations who harbor terrorists, you either expel them or you bring them to justice,” Netanyahu said Wednesday. “Because if you don’t, we will.”
Those comments were denounced Thursday by the UAE’s foreign ministry. Aggression against any member of the Gulf Cooperation Council — a six-nation bloc that includes the UAE and Qatar — “constitutes an attack on the collective Gulf security framework,” the ministry said in a statement.
Signs of frustration from the UAE
The UAE was the driving force behind the 2020 Abraham Accords.
It led other Arab nations in normalizing relations with Israel in agreements brokered by Trump that were widely seen as the biggest foreign policy achievement of his first term. Netanyahu has repeatedly expressed hope of expanding these deals, even after this week’s attack in Qatar.
The Israel-UAE agreement has held through two years of regional wars but could be in danger if Israel stays on its current trajectory.
Last week, the UAE warned Israel that any move to annex the occupied West Bank would be a “red line,” without specifying what action it might take.
Israel’s decision to pause annexation plans five years ago was billed as a concession to the UAE in the talks leading up to the accords. Now Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners are pressing for it after presiding over a dramatic expansion of Jewish settlements.
Trump, in his first term, lent unprecedented support to Israel’s claims to territory seized in war. It’s unclear if he will apply the brakes this time around.
Saudi Arabia drifts further away
Both Trump and Netanyahu hope to reach a similar normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, a regional powerhouse and custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites. The Biden administration seemed to be on the verge of brokering such a deal on the eve of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
Since then, it has appeared increasingly unlikely.
Saudi Arabia says it will only normalize ties with Israel if it opens up a path to an independent Palestinian state in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories Israel seized in the 1967 Mideast war. Israel’s current government and most of its political class were staunchly opposed to Palestinian statehood before the war and now say it would reward Hamas.
The Saudi crown prince has stuck by his demands and ramped up his rhetoric, accusing Israel of “genocide” at one point last year. Prince Mohammed has also pursued warmer ties with Iran, Israel’s main nemesis, which Saudi Arabia itself had long viewed as a regional menace.
All three Gulf nations still have powerful incentives to stick with the grand bargain struck with the United States after the 1991 Gulf War – when they agreed to host American bases and help stabilize energy markets in exchange for military protection. That’s been strained in Qatar after a June attack by Iran targeting a military base hosting U.S. troops.
But Israel’s strike is widely seen as an even greater violation of those understandings. That could make future deals harder to close.
