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August 8, 2025
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India and Pakistan again teeter on the brink of conflict over Kashmir. Here’s why

NEW DELHI — A deadly attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir has again moved India and Pakistan closer to war as the two rivals downgraded diplomatic and trade ties, closed the main border crossing and revoked visas for each other’s nationals.

Pakistan has denied it was behind Tuesday’s attack that killed 26 mostly Indian tourists at a scenic spot in the Himalayan region, where India claimed it restored a sense of calm despite a decadeslong rebellion. A previously unknown militant group calling itself Kashmir Resistance has claimed responsibility for the attack.

India and Pakistan have fought two of their three wars over Kashmir, which is split between them and claimed by both in its entirety. Here’s what to know about an escalation in tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

 

What’s at the heart of the dispute?

 

Ties between India and Pakistan have been shaped by conflict, aggressive diplomacy and mutual suspicion, most notably in their competing claims over the stunning Himalayan region of Kashmir.

Armed insurgents in Kashmir have resisted New Delhi for decades, with many Muslim Kashmiris supporting the rebels’ goal of uniting the territory either under Pakistani rule or as an independent country. India accuses Pakistan of fomenting violence, a charge denied by Islamabad. Tens of thousands of civilians, rebels and government forces have been killed in the conflict over the years.

 

How has Pakistan responded to India’s reprisals?

 

On Tuesday, gunmen fatally shot 26 people, mostly Indian tourists, in an attack near the picturesque town of Pahalgam. New Delhi immediately linked Pakistan to the attack, although it did not publicly produce any evidence.

India announced a string of punitive measures. It downgraded diplomatic ties, suspended a crucial water-sharing treaty and revoked all visas issued to Pakistani nationals. India also said it will reduce its staff in its high commission in Pakistan and bring down the number of Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi to 30 from 55 from May 1.

Pakistan called India’s actions “irresponsible” and canceled visas for Indian nationals, suspended all trade with India including via third countries and closed its airspace to Indian aircraft.

 

Islamabad warns dispute over water could lead to war

 

India’s decision to suspend the water treaty could potentially mark a major turning point in how the two neighbors manage an essential shared resource between them. Pakistan warned Thursday that any Indian attempt to stop or divert the flow of water between them would be considered an “act of war.”

The Indus Water Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allows for sharing the waters of a river system that is a lifeline for both countries. The treaty has survived two wars between the countries, in 1965 and 1971, and a major border skirmish in 1999.

It governs sharing of the water supply from the Indus River system and its distributaries. Under the treaty, India has control over the eastern rivers of Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas, and Pakistan controls the western rivers of Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus that follow through Kashmir region.

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