DALLAS — Just as sure as the turkey will taste dry, airports and highways are expected to be jam-packed during Thanksgiving week, a holiday period likely to end in another record day for air travel in the United States.
The people responsible for keeping security lines, boarding areas and jetliners moving — from the U.S. transportation secretary and airline chiefs on down the line — swear they are prepared for the crowds.
Airline passengers might get lucky like they did last year, when relatively few flights were canceled during the holiday week. A repeat will require the weather’s cooperation. And even if skies are blue, a shortage of air traffic controllers could create delays.
U.S. flights appeared to running relatively normally on Monday, with fewer than 40 canceled but more than 1,600 delayed by midday on the East Coast, according to FlightAware.
Thanksgiving, by the numbers
Auto club and insurance company AAA predicts that nearly 80 million Americans will venture at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday and next Monday. Most of them will travel by car.
Drivers should get a slight break on gas prices. The nationwide average price for gasoline was $3.06 a gallon on Monday, down from $3.26 at this time last year.
The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen 18.3 million people at U.S. airports during the same seven-day stretch. That would be 6% more than during the corresponding days last year but fit a pattern set throughout 2024.
The TSA predicts that 3 million people will pass through airport security checkpoints on Sunday; more than that could break the record of 3.01 million set on the Sunday after the July Fourth holiday. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be the next-busiest air travel days of Thanksgiving week.
TSA says it’s ready
“This will be the busiest Thanksgiving ever in terms of air travel,” TSA Administrator David Pekoske said. “Fortunately, our staffing is also at the highest levels that they have ever been. We are ready.”
Pekoske said TSA will have enough screeners to keep general security lines under 30 minutes and lines for people who pay extra for PreCheck under 10 minutes.
A Thanksgiving week airport strike
Workers who clean planes, remove trash and help with wheelchairs at North Carolina’s Charlotte Douglas International Airport began what was expected to be a 24-hour strike over their demands for higher wages. Only a handful of flights were canceled, and there were fewer than 100 delays.
The Charlotte airport is the nation’s ninth-busiest in passenger volume and serves as a hub for American Airlines. Airport officials expect about 1 million passengers to depart on flights between last Thursday and next Monday.
FAA staffing shortage could create delays
An ongoing shortage of air traffic controllers could cause flight delays at other airports.
Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Mike Whitaker said last week that he expects his agency to use special measures to deal with shortages at some facilities.
“If we are short on staff, we will slow traffic as needed to keep the system safe,” he said.
In the last two years, similar measures have slowed down flights in New York City and Florida.
The FAA has long struggled with a shortage of controllers that airline officials expect will last for years, despite the agency’s lofty hiring goals.
And the weather
Wintry weather is always a wild card for Thanksgiving and Christmas travel by plane and automobile.
Forecasters predicted more rain in California, where crews were trying to restore power lost to flooding from storms late last week. The Midwest and Great Lakes regions were expected to get rain and snow Monday, while the Northeast was expected to get hit with wet and blustery conditions by Thursday and Friday.
Timing of holiday shapes travel patterns
Thanksgiving Day takes place late this year, with the fourth Thursday of November falling on Nov. 28. That shortens the traditional shopping season and changes the rhythm of holiday travel.
With more time before the holiday, people tend to spread out their outbound travel over more days, but everyone returns at the same time, said Andrew Watterson, the chief operating officer of Southwest Airlines.
“A late Thanksgiving leads to a big crush at the end — the Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday after Thanksgiving are usually very busy with Thanksgiving this late,” Watterson said.
Airlines did a relatively good job of handling holiday crowds last year, when the weather was mild in most of the country. Fewer than 400 U.S. flights were canceled during Thanksgiving week in 2023 — about one of every 450 flights. So far in 2024, airlines have canceled about 1.3% of all flights.
