WASHINGTON — Russia and Iran may try to encourage violent protests in the U.S. after next month’s election, senior intelligence officials warned Tuesday in a declassified memo, citing two recent examples of foreign intelligence agencies seeking to sow discord ahead of the vote.
The memo, released Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said both countries could support violent protests either by covertly organizing events themselves or by encouraging participation in those planned by domestic groups. The aim, the officials wrote, would be to increase division, cast doubt on election results and complicate the transfer of presidential power.
In January, Russian military intelligence tried to recruit an American to organize protests in the U.S., according to a declassified national intelligence memo released publicly Tuesday. The American was “probably unwitting” and did not know he was in contact with Russian agents, the memo said.
The U.S. first accused the Iranian government of covertly supporting protests against American support for Israel during the war in Gaza. Individuals linked to Iran offered to cover the cost of travel to protests this year in Washington, the memo said.
The risk that one of America’s adversaries could encourage political violence after the election is greater this year, officials said, because officials in both nations now have a better understanding of the complicated process the U.S. uses to certify the vote. The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters also highlighted just how easily false and misleading claims about election results can trigger deadly real-world action.
The period between Election Day and the inauguration of the new president poses special risks as foreign adversaries and domestic extremists could seek to disrupt election certification by exploiting misleading claims or innocent irregularities. Concerns about safety already have prompted election workers in some communities to install bulletproof glass and panic buttons because of the risk of election-related incidents.
Fears of political violence have grown amid concerns about widening polarization and growing distrust, a trend America’s adversaries have tried to accelerate by using online disinformation and propaganda. Besides hoping to shape the outcome of the election, officials say Russia and Iran — as well as China — want to undermine American unity by spreading false and misleading claims about elections, voting and hot-button issues like immigration, the economy or the federal response to recent hurricanes.
For Russia, which aims to erode support for Ukraine, that means favoring former President Donald Trump, who has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and criticized the NATO alliance. Iran, meanwhile, has sought to hurt Trump’s campaign through disinformation and by hacking into its campaign emails.
Trump’s administration ended a nuclear deal with Iran, reimposed sanctions and ordered the killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, an act that prompted Iran’s leaders to vow revenge.
Russia will likely try to foment protests in the U.S. regardless of who wins the White House, according to an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, who briefed reporters Tuesday on the condition of anonymity under rules set out by the office of the director. Officials said they expect Russia’s response will be more aggressive, however, if Harris defeats Trump.
China also has spread disinformation seemingly designed to mislead and confuse Americans, but intelligence officials say they have no indication that Beijing will seek to encourage violent protests. While China has sought to meddle in down-ballot races for Congress or state and local office, U.S. intelligence officials and private analysts agree that Beijing has expressed no meaningful preference in the presidential race.
Groups looking to meddle in the election also could use the threat of violence at polling places to keep certain groups of voters from casting a ballot, officials have warned. Something similar happened in 2020, when Iranian hackers allegedly posed as members of the far-right Proud Boys organization and sent threatening emails to Democratic voters as a vote suppression tactic.
Voting advocacy organizations and civil rights groups have responded to concerns of election violence with public outreach initiatives aimed at increasing resilience to disinformation and at reminding them that Americans agree on more than the current political climate suggests.
“In 2024, voters must know that they will decide the outcome of the election — not a political party, extremist groups or purveyors of disinformation,” said Maya Wiley, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference for Civil and Human Rights, which has launched its own efforts to fight election misinformation and political violence it could spur. “Democracy requires passionate persistence.”
Russia, China and Iran have all rejected claims that they seek to meddle with the U.S. election. On Tuesday, a spokesperson for Iran’s U.N. mission pointed to past statements denying an intention to interfere in American politics. A spokesperson for China’s Embassy in Washington told The Associated Press that U.S. officials’ claims about Chinese disinformation are “full of malicious speculations against China.”
A message left with Russia’s embassy was not immediately returned Tuesday.
