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August 26, 2025
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Nikki Haley has bet her 2024 bid on South Carolina. But much of her home state leans toward Trump

GILBERT, S.C. — Standing inside a rustic barn a short drive from the state capital, Henry McMaster shocked many South Carolina Republicans seven years ago by backing Donald Trump for president.

Then the lieutenant governor, McMaster became the first statewide-elected official in the country to endorse Trump in 2016. The event was in Lexington County, the adopted political home of then-Gov. Nikki Haley, who had repeatedly criticized Trump and endorsed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

Trump would win the 2016 primary in South Carolina and eventually the presidency. After campaigning against him, Haley would accept his nomination as United Nations ambassador, making McMaster governor.

That complicated history is coming to the fore as Haley mounts a spirited effort to become the leading Republican alternative to Trump. Her strategy is centered on a strong showing in next month’s Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary before much of the campaign’s focus shifts to South Carolina, where the Feb. 24 contest could be the last chance for anyone other than Trump to prove they can survive.
But her home state has shifted closer to Trump in the near-decade since she last ran for state office, threatening her ability to tap into her local roots to notch the victory she has promised.
“Ten years is an eternity when all politics are national,” said Matt Moore, a former state GOP chairman. “Trump tapped into thousands of low-frequency voters who have reshaped South Carolina politics. Many of them weren’t focused on state-level issues prior, or even now.”

The former president this time has the endorsement of almost every major South Carolina Republican. Sen. Lindsey Graham, who ran against Trump, suggested he would destroy the Republican Party and openly questioned McMaster’s thinking over the 2016 endorsement, is now a close ally of the former president and is co-chairing Trump’s state campaign with McMaster.

South Carolina’s lieutenant governor, state treasurer, attorney general and three of its six Republican U.S. House members all back Trump. The only congressman to endorse Haley is Rep. Ralph Norman, a longtime ally.

Trump drew an estimated 50,000 people to a sweltering Fourth of July rally in Pickens, South Carolina, in the strongly conservative Upstate. Haley, meanwhile, set a record for her campaign last month with 2,500 people along the state’s southern coast, known for its wealthier and more traditional conservative set.

John Reed, a businessman from upscale Hilton Head Island who donated to Haley’s 2010 campaign, backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. But he is supporting Haley this time because he says she offers a contrast from Trump’s “divisive and disrespectful” tenor.

“I think Nikki’s the best of them because she has abilities and experience,” said Reed. “Trump’s narcissism and pride and arrogance is just too much for the office.”

Losing South Carolina would be a huge blow to Haley’s campaign, which is counting on outlasting rivals like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and picking up momentum from people open to a Trump alternative. A home state primary loss has devastated previous campaigns, including Rubio, who dropped out of the 2016 primary after a blowout loss to Trump in Florida. Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the 2020 Democratic race after losing several primaries in one day, including in her home state of Massachusetts.

Lexington County, where McMaster endorsed Trump, is Haley’s adopted political home and the area she represented in the state legislature. She came back to the same rustic barn in April to hold a rally for her presidential campaign.

She was little known when she launched a bid for governor against three high-profile candidates — including McMaster — running on a message of fiscal responsibility and going after what she described as entrenched powers in Columbia. She aligned with the “tea party” movement that arose during President Barack Obama’s first term.

Her key endorsement in that race was Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor who remained a powerhouse in GOP politics after her 2008 vice presidential bid. After also being backed by Mitt Romney, whose 2008 White House run she had supported, Haley nearly won the GOP primary outright and was victorious in the runoff.

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