HONG KONG — Hong Kong’s Fung Shing Restaurant was bustling this week as customers came for one last taste of the traditional Cantonese dim sum that has made it famous.
With COVID-19 restrictions cutting too deeply into its bottom line, the restaurant will shut its doors for good on Sunday, another economic victim of the pandemic.
Many fear the worst is yet to come with Hong Kong experiencing its most severe outbreak, and fret the authorities’ determination to stick to mainland China’s “zero-tolerance” strategy may prevent it from recovering as a financial and travel hub.
“Even though maybe zero-COVID can be reached, there is still uncertainty on how long it can be maintained and what the cost is of maintaining it,” said Natixis senior economist Gary Ng.
“The biggest risk of Hong Kong in 2022 is that it may be entering the path of basically, if not recession, at least a downward drag in economic growth again while the world begins to normalize,” Ng said.
Hong Kong has seen banks close branches and movie theaters have shut down. The streets of popular shopping and dining districts are lined with shops displaying “for rent” signs. Its international airport is nearly devoid of travelers.
A ban on onsite dining after 6 p.m., imposed last month, is depriving restaurants of critical dinner and banquet revenues.
Daily new coronavirus cases exceeded 2,000 for the first time on Monday; on Thursday, 6,116 new cases were reported.
Hospitals are becoming overwhelmed so the city is looking into converting hotels and even unoccupied public housing into quarantine areas. But it shows no sign of backing away from matching mainland China’s stringent policies even as the rest of the world learns to live with the coronavirus.
As part of its zero-tolerance strategy, China has locked down entire cities, literally keeping people sequestered in their homes and providing them with food and supplies as they are isolated during extensive testing and contact tracing to quell outbreaks.
But China has many cities. Hong Kong, a former British colony and semi-autonomous region of China, lacks the resources for such a complete lockdown, which would halt virtually all economic activity in the city of about 7.5 million.
Regional rival Singapore faces a similar wave of coronavirus infections caused by the highly contagious omicron variant. But it has opted for a strategy of “living with COVID.” That calls for very high vaccination rates and widespread testing. Unlike Hong Kong, which is requiring people who test positive to quarantine in hospitals or other government facilities, Singapore lets COVID-19 patients with mild or no symptoms isolate at home.
So while Singapore’s health care system is not in jeopardy of becoming overwhelmed, Hong Kong hospitals are at 90% capacity and some have had to treat patients outdoors for lack of room inside.
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam shows no sign of retreating from the “zero-COVID” stance, saying Thursday that fighting the pandemic is her “paramount task” and the city would “not be distracted by other things.”
“We will impose any measures that we should,” she said. “The aim is to make sure Hong Kong people’s lives and health are protected and to uphold Hong Kong’s stability.”
On Friday, Lam announced she was postponing the city’s election for chief executive for six weeks to May 8 due to “public health risks” it would pose at this stage in the pandemic. It’s not yet clear if Lam will run for reelection.
To relieve some pressure on hospitals, officials now say some patients with mild symptoms will be able to leave hospitals after just seven days — half the current requirement — if they test negative and are not living with any high-risk individuals.
At the current rate of spread of infections, new daily cases could rise to 28,000 by March, so it’s unclear that will be enough.
On the other hand, relaxing the zero-COVID strategy would hinder travel between the city and the mainland, where authorities require three weeks of quarantine or more. Beijing will not reopen Hong Kong’s border with the mainland until the city reaches and maintains zero COVID-19 cases.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said this week that Hong Kong’s “overriding task” is to get control of the situation. Some health experts from the mainland arrived Thursday to help with testing. Beijing also sent antibodies and other resources.
